What drives your hay market? Out here it is the export market for double pressed product. A 4' long, 120 pound bale is pressed to 2', retied and may be cut lengthwise. These go into a container and overseas to Asia. With the current economic crunch the presses are running at less than half speed as the delivered product is too expensive. With the drop in the Kiwi and Aussie dollar I'd guess that forage products will go from there. Heard of 9 young chaps headed to NZ after Jan 1 to spend 3 months baling hay. Grass seed straw and alfalfa are pressed and exported locally. The strw can be easily replaced from somewhere else, but the quality alfalfa will be harder to find. At harvest alfalfa was $220/ton in the field. It has since dropped 20-40/ton and is still not moving well. There are at least 12 pressing operations within 50 miles of me with 1 to 4 presses each. With good product and crew they can press 12+ tons/hour with 24-25 tons per container.
The local fear is that if the crunch holds on for a couple more months, there is going to be mountains of grass straw to get rid of before new crop in July and August. If the demand returned to normal by mid Feb the plants can't press fast enough to move the product.